Combat Edge Intelligence

Jhonata Diniz vs Shane Carwin

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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Tale of the tape

9-2-0Record12-2-0
HeavyweightDivisionHeavyweight
6'4"Height6'2"
79"ReachTBD
255 lbsWeight254 lbs
Santa Fe TeamTeamGrudge Training Center

What's at stake

The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.

Jhonata DinizNow 1669
If they win+16→ 1685
If they lose-16→ 1653
Shane CarwinNow 1672
If they win+16→ 1688
If they lose-16→ 1656

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1595 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1563 · 10 fights

Tracked stat edges

3.89
Sig. strikes / min
4.38
56%
Strike accuracy
47%
3.62
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
3.53
57%
Strike defense
54%
0
Takedown avg.
1.42
TBD
Takedown accuracy
33%
70%
Takedown defense
43%
0
Submission avg.
0

Trajectory

Jhonata DinizShane Carwin
16001650170020092010201120122013201420152016201720182019202020212022202320242025

Win method breakdown

7 (78%)
KO/TKO
8 (67%)
0 (0%)
Submission
4 (33%)
2 (22%)
Decision
0 (0%)

Combat Edge model read

Jhonata Diniz56%
Shane Carwin 44%Elo baseline: 50%

The Combat Edge model makes Jhonata Diniz a 56% favorite over Shane Carwin in a hypothetical meeting — an upset call against the Elo baseline, which leans Shane Carwin's way (50%).

Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1669 vs 1672), separated by just 3 points.

Jhonata Diniz finishes 78% of wins inside the distance, Shane Carwin 100%.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.