Jhonata Diniz vs Shane Carwin
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
9-2-0Record12-2-0
HeavyweightDivisionHeavyweight
6'4"Height6'2"
79"ReachTBD
255 lbsWeight254 lbs
Santa Fe TeamTeamGrudge Training Center
What's at stake
The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.
If they win+16→ 1688
If they lose-16→ 1656
If they win+16→ 1690
If they lose-16→ 1658
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1596 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1567 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Tracked UFC statistics may not cover a fighter's full career. Unavailable measurements are not zero.
Elo Trajectory
Jhonata DinizShane Carwin
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Jhonata Diniz67%
Shane Carwin 33%Elo baseline: 50%
The Combat Edge model makes Jhonata Diniz a 67% favorite over Shane Carwin in a hypothetical meeting — an upset call against the Elo baseline, which leans Shane Carwin's way (50%).
Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1672 vs 1674), separated by just 2 points.
Jhonata Diniz finishes 78% of wins inside the distance, Shane Carwin 100%.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.