Jimmy Ambriz vs Mac Papalii
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
17-21-1Record2-0-0
Super HeavyweightDivisionSuper Heavyweight
6'0"Height6'0"
TBDReach-
301 lbsWeight273 lbs
TeamBattle Box· 1575 avg Elo · 3 rated
What's at stake
Mac Papalii is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +19 while a loss costs more — Jimmy Ambriz carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+15→ 1496
If they lose-9→ 1472
If they win+19→ 1574
If they lose-29→ 1526
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1517 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1500 · 2 fights
Tracked stat edges
Tracked UFC statistics may not cover a fighter's full career. Unavailable measurements are not zero.
Elo Trajectory
Jimmy AmbrizMac Papalii
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Mac Papalii74%
Jimmy Ambriz 26%Elo baseline: 60%
The Combat Edge model makes Mac Papalii a 74% favorite over Jimmy Ambriz in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (60%).
Mac Papalii holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1555 to 1481, a 74-point edge.
Jimmy Ambriz enters on a 3-fight loss streak.
Mac Papalii enters on a 2-fight win streak.
Jimmy Ambriz finishes 94% of wins inside the distance.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.