Combat Edge Intelligence

Jin Soo Son vs Mario Bautista

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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Tale of the tape

9-4-0Record17-3-0
BantamweightDivisionBantamweight
5'7"Height5'9"
69,0"Reach69"
135 lbsWeight135 lbs
Korean Zombie MMATeamMMA Lab

What's at stake

Mario Bautista is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +9 while a loss costs more — Jin Soo Son carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.

Jin Soo SonNow 1603
If they win+23→ 1626
If they lose-9→ 1594
Mario BautistaNow 1774
If they win+9→ 1783
If they lose-23→ 1751

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1536 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1713 · 10 fights

Tracked stat edges

5.10
Sig. strikes / min
5.30
36%
Strike accuracy
49%
7.63
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
3.98
52%
Strike defense
55%
1.50
Takedown avg.
1.91
25%
Takedown accuracy
38%
100%
Takedown defense
56%
0
Submission avg.
0.85

Trajectory

Jin Soo SonMario Bautista
160017002017201820192020202120222023202420252026

Win method breakdown

4 (44%)
KO/TKO
3 (18%)
2 (22%)
Submission
7 (41%)
3 (33%)
Decision
7 (41%)

Combat Edge model read

Mario Bautista92%
Jin Soo Son 8%Elo baseline: 73%

The Combat Edge model makes Mario Bautista a 92% favorite over Jin Soo Son in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (73%).

Mario Bautista holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1774 to 1603, a 171-point edge.

Jin Soo Son enters on a 2-fight loss streak.

Jin Soo Son finishes 67% of wins inside the distance, Mario Bautista 59%.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.