Combat Edge Intelligence

Joanna Jędrzejczyk vs Valerie Letourneau

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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Tale of the tape

16-5-0Record10-7-0
StrawweightDivisionStrawweight
5'6"Height5'7"
65"Reach68,0"
115 lbsWeight116 lbs
American Top TeamTeamAmerican Top Team

What's at stake

Joanna Jędrzejczyk is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +11 while a loss costs more — Valerie Letourneau carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.

Joanna JędrzejczykNow 1686
If they win+11→ 1697
If they lose-21→ 1665
Valerie LetourneauNow 1582
If they win+21→ 1603
If they lose-11→ 1571

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1674 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1586 · 10 fights

Tracked stat edges

6.28
Sig. strikes / min
4.51
48%
Strike accuracy
38%
3.25
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
5.40
63%
Strike defense
59%
0.27
Takedown avg.
0.77
63%
Takedown accuracy
45%
80%
Takedown defense
67%
0.05
Submission avg.
0.31

Trajectory

Joanna JędrzejczykValerie Letourneau
160016501700201720182019202020212022

Win method breakdown

4 (25%)
KO/TKO
4 (40%)
1 (6%)
Submission
1 (10%)
11 (69%)
Decision
5 (50%)

Combat Edge model read

Joanna Jędrzejczyk78%
Valerie Letourneau 22%Elo baseline: 65%

The Combat Edge model makes Joanna Jędrzejczyk a 78% favorite over Valerie Letourneau in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (65%).

Joanna Jędrzejczyk holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1686 to 1582, a 104-point edge.

Joanna Jędrzejczyk enters on a 2-fight loss streak.

Joanna Jędrzejczyk finishes 31% of wins inside the distance, Valerie Letourneau 50%.

Valerie Letourneau carries a 3-inch reach advantage.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.