Joao Elias vs Zhalgas Zhumagulov
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
17-4-1Record19-9-0
FlyweightDivisionFlyweight
5'3"Height5'4"
TBDReach66"
125 lbsWeight125 lbs
Gile Ribeiro TeamTeamAmerican Top Team
What's at stake
The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.
If they win+16→ 1659
If they lose-16→ 1627
If they win+16→ 1659
If they lose-16→ 1627
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1514 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1590 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Joao EliasZhalgas Zhumagulov
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Joao Elias58%
Zhalgas Zhumagulov 42%Elo baseline: 50%
The Combat Edge model makes Joao Elias a 58% favorite over Zhalgas Zhumagulov in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (50%).
Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1643 vs 1643), separated by just 0 points.
Zhalgas Zhumagulov enters on a 5-fight win streak.
Joao Elias finishes 71% of wins inside the distance, Zhalgas Zhumagulov 53%.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.