Joaquin Buckley vs Kamaru Usman
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
21-8-0Record21-4-0
WelterweightDivisionMiddleweight
5'8"Height6'0"
76"Reach76"
170 lbsWeight185 lbs
Murcielago MMATeamKill Cliff FC
What's at stake
Kamaru Usman is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +10 while a loss costs more — Joaquin Buckley carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+14→ 1769
If they lose-10→ 1745
If they win+10→ 1832
If they lose-14→ 1808
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1737 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1799 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Joaquin BuckleyKamaru Usman
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Joaquin Buckley54%
Kamaru Usman 46%Elo baseline: 40%
The Combat Edge model makes Joaquin Buckley a 54% favorite over Kamaru Usman in a hypothetical meeting — an upset call against the Elo baseline, which leans Kamaru Usman's way (40%).
Kamaru Usman holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1822 to 1755, a 67-point edge.
Joaquin Buckley enters on a 2-fight loss streak.
Joaquin Buckley finishes 71% of wins inside the distance, Kamaru Usman 48%.
Joaquin Buckley and Kamaru Usman share 1 common opponent: Colby Covington.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.