Joaquin Garcia vs Matt Lee
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
3-1-0Record14-10-1
MiddleweightDivisionWelterweight
6'1"Height6'0"
-ReachTBD
175 lbsWeight170 lbs
Team Oyama· 1645 avg Elo · 6 ratedTeamThe Factory
What's at stake
The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.
If they win+24→ 1572
If they lose-24→ 1524
If they win+12→ 1561
If they lose-12→ 1537
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1511 · 4 fightsPre-fight Elo1532 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Joaquin GarciaMatt Lee
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Joaquin Garcia71%
Matt Lee 29%Elo baseline: 50%
The Combat Edge model makes Joaquin Garcia a 71% favorite over Matt Lee in a hypothetical meeting — an upset call against the Elo baseline, which leans Matt Lee's way (50%).
Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1548 vs 1549), separated by just 1 points.
Joaquin Garcia finishes 100% of wins inside the distance, Matt Lee 43%.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.