Combat Edge Intelligence

Joaquin Garcia vs Phil Cardella

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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Tale of the tape

3-1-0Record8-5-0
MiddleweightDivisionWelterweight
6'1"Height5'10"
-ReachTBD
175 lbsWeight165 lbs
Team Oyama· 1645 avg Elo · 6 ratedTeam

What's at stake

The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.

Joaquin GarciaNow 1548
If they win+24→ 1572
If they lose-24→ 1524
Phil CardellaNow 1548
If they win+16→ 1564
If they lose-16→ 1532

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1511 · 4 fightsPre-fight Elo1522 · 10 fights

Tracked stat edges

TBD
Sig. strikes / min
2.47
TBD
Strike accuracy
50%
TBD
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
2
TBD
Strike defense
58%
TBD
Takedown avg.
0
TBD
Takedown accuracy
0%
TBD
Takedown defense
11%
TBD
Submission avg.
2.50

Trajectory

Joaquin GarciaPhil Cardella
155016002008200920102011201220132014201520162017201820192020202120222023202420252026

Win method breakdown

0 (0%)
KO/TKO
1 (13%)
3 (100%)
Submission
6 (75%)
0 (0%)
Decision
1 (13%)

Combat Edge model read

Joaquin Garcia76%
Phil Cardella 24%Elo baseline: 50%

The Combat Edge model makes Joaquin Garcia a 76% favorite over Phil Cardella in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (50%).

Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1548 vs 1548), separated by just 0 points.

Phil Cardella enters on a 2-fight loss streak.

Joaquin Garcia finishes 100% of wins inside the distance, Phil Cardella 88%.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.