Combat Edge Intelligence

Joaquin Garcia vs Roger Zapata

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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Tale of the tape

3-1-0Record4-2-0
MiddleweightDivisionWelterweight
6'1"Height5'11"
-ReachTBD
175 lbsWeight170 lbs
Team Oyama· 1645 avg Elo · 6 ratedTeamBruno Tostes BJJ

What's at stake

The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.

Joaquin GarciaNow 1548
If they win+24→ 1572
If they lose-24→ 1524
Roger ZapataNow 1547
If they win+24→ 1571
If they lose-24→ 1523

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1511 · 4 fightsPre-fight Elo1502 · 6 fights

Tracked stat edges

TBD
Sig. strikes / min
2.60
TBD
Strike accuracy
52%
TBD
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
2.13
TBD
Strike defense
36%
TBD
Takedown avg.
0
TBD
Takedown accuracy
0%
TBD
Takedown defense
82%
TBD
Submission avg.
1.39

Trajectory

Joaquin GarciaRoger Zapata
15502014201520162017201820192020202120222023202420252026

Win method breakdown

0 (0%)
KO/TKO
3 (75%)
3 (100%)
Submission
0 (0%)
0 (0%)
Decision
1 (25%)

Combat Edge model read

Joaquin Garcia70%
Roger Zapata 30%Elo baseline: 50%

The Combat Edge model makes Joaquin Garcia a 70% favorite over Roger Zapata in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (50%).

Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1548 vs 1547), separated by just 1 points.

Joaquin Garcia finishes 100% of wins inside the distance, Roger Zapata 75%.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.