Combat Edge Intelligence

Jocelyn Jones-Lybarger vs Tecia Pennington

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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Tale of the tape

6-4-0Record15-8-0
StrawweightDivisionStrawweight
5'7"Height5'1"
64.00Reach60″
115 lbsWeight115 lbs
MMA LabTeamAmerican Top Team

What's at stake

Tecia Pennington is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +7 while a loss costs more — Jocelyn Jones-Lybarger carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.

Jocelyn Jones-LybargerNow 1426
If they win+38→ 1464
If they lose-10→ 1416
Tecia PenningtonNow 1658
If they win+7→ 1665
If they lose-25→ 1633

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1554 · 4 fightsPre-fight Elo1662 · 10 fights

Tracked stat edges

2.96
Sig. strikes / min
4.78
31%
Strike accuracy
48%
4.83
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
3.48
56%
Strike defense
62%
0.34
Takedown avg.
0.54
25%
Takedown accuracy
14%
82%
Takedown defense
62%
0
Submission avg.
0.06

Trajectory

Jocelyn Jones-LybargerTecia Pennington
150016002016201720182019202020212022202320242025

Win method breakdown

0 (0%)
KO/TKO
1 (7%)
1 (17%)
Submission
1 (7%)
5 (83%)
Decision
13 (87%)

Combat Edge model read

Tecia Pennington83%
Jocelyn Jones-Lybarger 17%Elo baseline: 79%

The Combat Edge model makes Tecia Pennington a 83% favorite over Jocelyn Jones-Lybarger in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (79%).

Tecia Pennington holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1658 to 1426, a 232-point edge.

Jocelyn Jones-Lybarger enters on a 4-fight loss streak.

Jocelyn Jones-Lybarger finishes 17% of wins inside the distance, Tecia Pennington 13%.

Jocelyn Jones-Lybarger carries a 4-inch reach advantage.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.