Combat Edge Intelligence

Joe Doerksen vs Matt Lindland

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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Joe Doerksen
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Joe Doerksen

“El Dirte”

51-16-0MiddleweightKOTC

1712Good

Tale of the tape

51-16-0Record22-9-0
MiddleweightDivisionMiddleweight
6'0"Height6'0"
TBDReachTBD
186 lbsWeight185 lbs
Canadian Fighting CentreTeamTeam Quest

What's at stake

Matt Lindland is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +11 while a loss costs more — Joe Doerksen carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.

Joe DoerksenNow 1712
If they win+13→ 1725
If they lose-11→ 1701
Matt LindlandNow 1729
If they win+11→ 1740
If they lose-13→ 1716

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1595 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1668 · 10 fights

Tracked stat edges

1.27
Sig. strikes / min
2.46
41%
Strike accuracy
52%
3.23
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
2.27
51%
Strike defense
52%
1.87
Takedown avg.
3.46
32%
Takedown accuracy
50%
33%
Takedown defense
61%
2.18
Submission avg.
1.15

Trajectory

Joe DoerksenMatt Lindland
1700175020102011201220132014

Win method breakdown

10 (20%)
KO/TKO
9 (43%)
33 (65%)
Submission
6 (29%)
8 (16%)
Decision
6 (29%)

Combat Edge model read

The Combat Edge model rates this a near coin-flip, splitting Joe Doerksen and Matt Lindland within a point of even.

Matt Lindland holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1729 to 1712, a 17-point edge.

Joe Doerksen enters on a 4-fight win streak.

Joe Doerksen finishes 84% of wins inside the distance, Matt Lindland 71%.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.