Joe Doerksen vs Tom Lawlor
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
51-16-0Record11-8-0
MiddleweightDivisionLight Heavyweight
6'0"Height6'0"
TBDReach74,0"
186 lbsWeight205 lbs
Canadian Fighting CentreTeamThe Jungle MMA
What's at stake
Joe Doerksen is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +8 while a loss costs more — Tom Lawlor carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+8→ 1720
If they lose-16→ 1696
If they win+22→ 1605
If they lose-10→ 1573
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1595 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1636 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Joe DoerksenTom Lawlor
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Joe Doerksen63%
Tom Lawlor 37%Elo baseline: 68%
The Combat Edge model makes Joe Doerksen a 63% favorite over Tom Lawlor in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (68%).
Joe Doerksen holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1712 to 1583, a 129-point edge.
Joe Doerksen enters on a 4-fight win streak.
Joe Doerksen finishes 84% of wins inside the distance, Tom Lawlor 73%.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.