Joe Duffy vs Wilson Varela
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
16-5-0Record13-8-0
LightweightDivisionLightweight
5'10"Height6'0"
73.00Reach75.6"
155 lbsWeight154 lbs
The MMA ClinicTeamMarseille Fight Club
What's at stake
The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.
If they win+16→ 1593
If they lose-16→ 1561
If they win+16→ 1592
If they lose-16→ 1560
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1627 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1561 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Tracked UFC statistics may not cover a fighter's full career. Unavailable measurements are not zero.
Elo Trajectory
Joe DuffyWilson Varela
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Wilson Varela53%
Joe Duffy 47%Elo baseline: 50%
The Combat Edge model makes Wilson Varela a 53% favorite over Joe Duffy in a hypothetical meeting — an upset call against the Elo baseline, which leans Joe Duffy's way (50%).
Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1577 vs 1576), separated by just 1 points.
Joe Duffy enters on a 3-fight loss streak.
Wilson Varela enters on a 2-fight loss streak.
Joe Duffy finishes 88% of wins inside the distance, Wilson Varela 83%.
Wilson Varela carries a 3-inch reach advantage.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.