Joe Gigliotti vs Trevor Smith
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
7-3-0Record15-10-0
MiddleweightDivisionMiddleweight
5'11"Height6'3"
39.00Reach41,5"
185 lbsWeight185 lbs
Power MMA TeamTeamRing Demon Jiu-Jitsu
What's at stake
Trevor Smith is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +10 while a loss costs more — Joe Gigliotti carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+33→ 1503
If they lose-15→ 1455
If they win+10→ 1610
If they lose-22→ 1578
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1633 · 2 fightsPre-fight Elo1662 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Joe GigliottiTrevor Smith
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Joe Gigliotti54%
Trevor Smith 46%Elo baseline: 32%
The Combat Edge model makes Joe Gigliotti a 54% favorite over Trevor Smith in a hypothetical meeting — an upset call against the Elo baseline, which leans Trevor Smith's way (32%).
Trevor Smith holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1600 to 1470, a 130-point edge.
Joe Gigliotti enters on a 2-fight loss streak.
Trevor Smith enters on a 3-fight loss streak.
Joe Gigliotti finishes 100% of wins inside the distance, Trevor Smith 67%.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.