Joe Lauzon vs Michael Chiesa
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
28-15-0Record20-7-0
LightweightDivisionWelterweight
5'10"Height6'1"
TBDReach75"
155 lbsWeight170 lbs
Lauzon MMATeamSikjitsu
What's at stake
Michael Chiesa is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +8 while a loss costs more — Joe Lauzon carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+16→ 1665
If they lose-8→ 1641
If they win+8→ 1766
If they lose-16→ 1742
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1669 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1710 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Joe LauzonMichael Chiesa
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Michael Chiesa84%
Joe Lauzon 16%Elo baseline: 65%
The Combat Edge model makes Michael Chiesa a 84% favorite over Joe Lauzon in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (65%).
Michael Chiesa holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1758 to 1649, a 109-point edge.
Michael Chiesa enters on a 4-fight win streak.
Joe Lauzon finishes 93% of wins inside the distance, Michael Chiesa 65%.
Joe Lauzon and Michael Chiesa share 1 common opponent: Diego Sanchez.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.