Joe Pardo
Elo1432DevelopingJoe Pardo vs Ryo Sakai
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
Compare any two fighters →Elo1432Developing
Tale of the tape
4-6-0Record15-16-0
HeavyweightDivisionHeavyweight
6'1"Height5'11"
TBDReach-
210 lbsWeight246 lbs
Gracie Jiu-Jitsu AcademyTeamRanger Gym
What's at stake
Ryo Sakai is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +10 while a loss costs more — Joe Pardo carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+28→ 1460
If they lose-20→ 1412
If they win+10→ 1501
If they lose-14→ 1477
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1545 · 8 fightsPre-fight Elo1527 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Joe PardoRyo Sakai
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Ryo Sakai84%
Joe Pardo 16%Elo baseline: 58%
The Combat Edge model makes Ryo Sakai a 84% favorite over Joe Pardo in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (58%).
Ryo Sakai holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1491 to 1432, a 59-point edge.
Joe Pardo enters on a 4-fight loss streak.
Ryo Sakai enters on a 2-fight loss streak.
Joe Pardo finishes 75% of wins inside the distance, Ryo Sakai 67%.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.