Joe Pearson vs Kyohei Hagiwara
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
45-31-1Record9-12-0
FeatherweightDivisionFeatherweight
5'10"Height5'10"
TBDReach71.1"
145 lbsWeight145 lbs
Team ExtremeTeamTeam Smoker
What's at stake
Kyohei Hagiwara is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +14 while a loss costs more — Joe Pearson carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+14→ 1450
If they lose-10→ 1426
If they win+14→ 1494
If they lose-18→ 1462
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1496 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1550 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Joe PearsonKyohei Hagiwara
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Kyohei Hagiwara82%
Joe Pearson 18%Elo baseline: 56%
The Combat Edge model makes Kyohei Hagiwara a 82% favorite over Joe Pearson in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (56%).
Kyohei Hagiwara holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1480 to 1436, a 44-point edge.
Joe Pearson enters on a 8-fight loss streak.
Kyohei Hagiwara enters on a 3-fight loss streak.
Joe Pearson finishes 100% of wins inside the distance, Kyohei Hagiwara 78%.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.