Joe Riggs vs Matt Hughes
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
49-18-1Record45-9-0
WelterweightDivisionWelterweight
6'0"Height5'9"
37,0"Reach73"
170 lbsWeight170 lbs
Soul FightersTeamHIT Squad
What's at stake
Matt Hughes is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +9 while a loss costs more — Joe Riggs carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+15→ 1719
If they lose-9→ 1695
If they win+9→ 1816
If they lose-15→ 1792
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1497 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1642 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Joe RiggsMatt Hughes
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Matt Hughes62%
Joe Riggs 38%Elo baseline: 64%
The Combat Edge model makes Matt Hughes a 62% favorite over Joe Riggs in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (64%).
Matt Hughes holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1807 to 1704, a 103-point edge.
Joe Riggs enters on a 2-fight win streak.
Matt Hughes enters on a 2-fight loss streak.
Joe Riggs finishes 92% of wins inside the distance, Matt Hughes 78%.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.