Joe Riggs vs Nick Diaz
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
49-18-1Record26-10-0
WelterweightDivisionMiddleweight
6'0"Height6'1"
37,0"Reach76"
170 lbsWeight185 lbs
Soul FightersTeamCesar Gracie Fight Team
What's at stake
Nick Diaz is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +10 while a loss costs more — Joe Riggs carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+14→ 1718
If they lose-10→ 1694
If they win+10→ 1769
If they lose-14→ 1745
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1497 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1731 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Joe RiggsNick Diaz
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Nick Diaz78%
Joe Riggs 22%Elo baseline: 58%
The Combat Edge model makes Nick Diaz a 78% favorite over Joe Riggs in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (58%).
Nick Diaz holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1759 to 1704, a 55-point edge.
Joe Riggs enters on a 2-fight win streak.
Nick Diaz enters on a 5-fight loss streak.
Joe Riggs finishes 92% of wins inside the distance, Nick Diaz 81%.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.