Joe Schilling vs Justin Hawes
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
4-7-0Record7-8-1
Light HeavyweightDivisionLight Heavyweight
6'3"Height5'11"
76"ReachTBD
205 lbsWeight199 lbs
The Yard Muay ThaiTeamDesert Dogs
What's at stake
The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.
If they win+24→ 1486
If they lose-24→ 1438
If they win+16→ 1474
If they lose-16→ 1442
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1541 · 9 fightsPre-fight Elo1483 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Joe SchillingJustin Hawes
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Joe Schilling60%
Justin Hawes 40%Elo baseline: 51%
The Combat Edge model makes Joe Schilling a 60% favorite over Justin Hawes in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (51%).
Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1462 vs 1458), separated by just 4 points.
Joe Schilling enters on a 2-fight loss streak.
Joe Schilling finishes 75% of wins inside the distance, Justin Hawes 57%.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.