Joe Schilling vs Leonardo Guimaraes
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
4-7-0Record15-14-1
Light HeavyweightDivisionLight Heavyweight
6'3"Height6'0"
76"Reach73"
205 lbsWeight205 lbs
The Yard Muay ThaiTeamTata Fight Team
What's at stake
Joe Schilling is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +22 while a loss costs more — Leonardo Guimaraes carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+22→ 1484
If they lose-26→ 1436
If they win+17→ 1449
If they lose-15→ 1417
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1541 · 9 fightsPre-fight Elo1523 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Joe SchillingLeonardo Guimaraes
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Joe Schilling63%
Leonardo Guimaraes 37%Elo baseline: 54%
The Combat Edge model makes Joe Schilling a 63% favorite over Leonardo Guimaraes in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (54%).
Joe Schilling holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1462 to 1432, a 30-point edge.
Joe Schilling enters on a 2-fight loss streak.
Joe Schilling finishes 75% of wins inside the distance, Leonardo Guimaraes 80%.
Joe Schilling carries a 3-inch reach advantage.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.