Joe Schilling vs Minoru Toyonaga
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
4-7-0Record2-5-0
Light HeavyweightDivisionLight Heavyweight
6'3"Height5'11"
76"ReachTBD
205 lbsWeight195 lbs
The Yard Muay ThaiTeamTakada Dojo
What's at stake
Joe Schilling is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +23 while a loss costs more — Minoru Toyonaga carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+23→ 1485
If they lose-25→ 1437
If they win+25→ 1467
If they lose-23→ 1419
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1541 · 9 fightsPre-fight Elo1489 · 7 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Joe SchillingMinoru Toyonaga
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Joe Schilling60%
Minoru Toyonaga 40%Elo baseline: 53%
The Combat Edge model makes Joe Schilling a 60% favorite over Minoru Toyonaga in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (53%).
Joe Schilling holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1462 to 1442, a 20-point edge.
Joe Schilling enters on a 2-fight loss streak.
Minoru Toyonaga enters on a 2-fight win streak.
Joe Schilling finishes 75% of wins inside the distance.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.