Joe Schilling vs Royce Alger
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
4-7-0Record3-2-0
Light HeavyweightDivisionLight Heavyweight
6'3"Height5'10"
76"ReachTBD
205 lbsWeight205 lbs
The Yard Muay ThaiTeamHammer House
What's at stake
The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.
If they win+24→ 1486
If they lose-24→ 1438
If they win+24→ 1493
If they lose-24→ 1445
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1541 · 9 fightsPre-fight Elo1492 · 3 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Joe SchillingRoyce Alger
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Joe Schilling55%
Royce Alger 45%Elo baseline: 49%
The Combat Edge model makes Joe Schilling a 55% favorite over Royce Alger in a hypothetical meeting — an upset call against the Elo baseline, which leans Royce Alger's way (49%).
Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1462 vs 1469), separated by just 7 points.
Joe Schilling enters on a 2-fight loss streak.
Joe Schilling finishes 75% of wins inside the distance, Royce Alger 100%.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.