Joe Soto vs Michinori Tanaka
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
18-7-0Record16-4-0
BantamweightDivisionBantamweight
5'6"Height5'5"
65,0"Reach67,0"
135 lbsWeight135 lbs
Central Valley Combat AcademyTeamTeam Alpha Male Japan
What's at stake
Michinori Tanaka is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +14 while a loss costs more — Joe Soto carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+13→ 1677
If they lose-11→ 1653
If they win+14→ 1713
If they lose-18→ 1681
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1650 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1575 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Joe SotoMichinori Tanaka
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Michinori Tanaka69%
Joe Soto 31%Elo baseline: 55%
The Combat Edge model makes Michinori Tanaka a 69% favorite over Joe Soto in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (55%).
Michinori Tanaka holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1699 to 1664, a 35-point edge.
Joe Soto enters on a 2-fight loss streak.
Michinori Tanaka enters on a 2-fight win streak.
Joe Soto finishes 83% of wins inside the distance, Michinori Tanaka 38%.
Joe Soto and Michinori Tanaka share 1 common opponent: Rani Yahya.
Michinori Tanaka carries a 2-inch reach advantage.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.