Joe Soto vs TJ Dillashaw
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
18-7-0Record17-5-0
BantamweightDivisionBantamweight
5'6"Height5'6"
65,0"Reach67"
135 lbsWeight135 lbs
Central Valley Combat AcademyTeamThe Treigning Lab
What's at stake
TJ Dillashaw is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +12 while a loss costs more — Joe Soto carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+15→ 1679
If they lose-9→ 1655
If they win+12→ 1775
If they lose-20→ 1743
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1650 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1755 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Joe SotoTJ Dillashaw
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
TJ Dillashaw64%
Joe Soto 36%Elo baseline: 64%
The Combat Edge model makes TJ Dillashaw a 64% favorite over Joe Soto in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (64%).
TJ Dillashaw holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1763 to 1664, a 99-point edge.
Joe Soto enters on a 2-fight loss streak.
Joe Soto finishes 83% of wins inside the distance, TJ Dillashaw 65%.
TJ Dillashaw carries a 2-inch reach advantage.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.