Joe Stevenson vs Luke Cummo
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
33-16-0Record6-6-0
LightweightDivisionWelterweight
5'7"Height6'0"
TBDReachTBD
155 lbsWeight170 lbs
Joe Stevenson's Cobra KaiTeamSerra-Longo Fight Team· 1771 avg Elo · 4 rated
What's at stake
Joe Stevenson is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +9 while a loss costs more — Luke Cummo carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+9→ 1621
If they lose-15→ 1597
If they win+20→ 1535
If they lose-12→ 1503
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1562 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1573 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Tracked UFC statistics may not cover a fighter's full career. Unavailable measurements are not zero.
Elo Trajectory
Joe StevensonLuke Cummo
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Joe Stevenson64%
Luke Cummo 36%Elo baseline: 64%
The Combat Edge model makes Joe Stevenson a 64% favorite over Luke Cummo in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (64%).
Joe Stevenson holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1612 to 1515, a 97-point edge.
Joe Stevenson enters on a 2-fight win streak.
Joe Stevenson finishes 67% of wins inside the distance, Luke Cummo 83%.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.