Combat Edge Intelligence

Joe Stevenson vs Mac Danzig

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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Tale of the tape

33-16-0Record22-12-1
LightweightDivisionLightweight
5'7"Height5'8"
TBDReachTBD
155 lbsWeight155 lbs
Joe Stevenson's Cobra KaiTeamDanzig MMA

What's at stake

Joe Stevenson is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +11 while a loss costs more — Mac Danzig carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.

Joe StevensonNow 1615
If they win+11→ 1626
If they lose-13→ 1602
Mac DanzigNow 1597
If they win+13→ 1610
If they lose-11→ 1586

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1562 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1618 · 10 fights

Tracked stat edges

2.05
Sig. strikes / min
3.39
45%
Strike accuracy
49%
2.44
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
3.44
61%
Strike defense
57%
2.75
Takedown avg.
1.20
45%
Takedown accuracy
38%
40%
Takedown defense
46%
2.20
Submission avg.
0.60

Trajectory

Joe StevensonMac Danzig
160020162017

Win method breakdown

9 (27%)
KO/TKO
5 (23%)
13 (39%)
Submission
11 (50%)
11 (33%)
Decision
6 (27%)

Combat Edge model read

Joe Stevenson56%
Mac Danzig 44%Elo baseline: 53%

The Combat Edge model makes Joe Stevenson a 56% favorite over Mac Danzig in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (53%).

Joe Stevenson holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1615 to 1597, a 18-point edge.

Joe Stevenson enters on a 2-fight win streak.

Joe Stevenson finishes 67% of wins inside the distance, Mac Danzig 73%.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.