Joe Stevenson vs Melvin Guillard
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
33-16-0Record32-22-2
LightweightDivisionWelterweight
5'7"Height5'9"
TBDReachTBD
155 lbsWeight170 lbs
Joe Stevenson's Cobra KaiTeamGenesis Training Center
What's at stake
Joe Stevenson is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +9 while a loss costs more — Melvin Guillard carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+9→ 1624
If they lose-15→ 1600
If they win+15→ 1536
If they lose-9→ 1512
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1562 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1608 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Joe StevensonMelvin Guillard
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Joe Stevenson72%
Melvin Guillard 28%Elo baseline: 63%
The Combat Edge model makes Joe Stevenson a 72% favorite over Melvin Guillard in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (63%).
Joe Stevenson holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1615 to 1521, a 94-point edge.
Joe Stevenson enters on a 2-fight win streak.
Melvin Guillard enters on a 10-fight loss streak.
Joe Stevenson finishes 67% of wins inside the distance, Melvin Guillard 72%.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.