Joe Stevenson vs Nate Diaz
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
33-16-0Record21-14-0
LightweightDivisionWelterweight
5'7"Height6'0"
TBDReach76"
155 lbsWeight170 lbs
Joe Stevenson's Cobra KaiTeamCesar Gracie Fight Team
What's at stake
Nate Diaz is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +10 while a loss costs more — Joe Stevenson carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+14→ 1626
If they lose-10→ 1602
If they win+10→ 1683
If they lose-14→ 1659
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1562 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1727 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Tracked UFC statistics may not cover a fighter's full career. Unavailable measurements are not zero.
Elo Trajectory
Joe StevensonNate Diaz
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Nate Diaz74%
Joe Stevenson 26%Elo baseline: 59%
The Combat Edge model makes Nate Diaz a 74% favorite over Joe Stevenson in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (59%).
Nate Diaz holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1673 to 1612, a 61-point edge.
Joe Stevenson enters on a 2-fight win streak.
Joe Stevenson finishes 67% of wins inside the distance, Nate Diaz 81%.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.