Joe Stevenson vs Ryan Cafaro
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
33-16-0Record15-7-0
LightweightDivisionFeatherweight
5'7"Height5'7"
TBDReach69"
155 lbsWeight145 lbs
Joe Stevenson's Cobra KaiTeamNick Catone MMA & Fitness
What's at stake
The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.
If they win+12→ 1624
If they lose-12→ 1600
If they win+16→ 1628
If they lose-16→ 1596
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1562 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1505 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Tracked UFC statistics may not cover a fighter's full career. Unavailable measurements are not zero.
Elo Trajectory
Joe StevensonRyan Cafaro
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Joe Stevenson55%
Ryan Cafaro 45%Elo baseline: 50%
The Combat Edge model makes Joe Stevenson a 55% favorite over Ryan Cafaro in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (50%).
Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1612 vs 1612), separated by just 0 points.
Joe Stevenson enters on a 2-fight win streak.
Joe Stevenson finishes 67% of wins inside the distance, Ryan Cafaro 80%.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.