Joe Thurrott vs Ricky Miller
Records, Elo, stats and the Combat Edge model read, side by side.
Combat Edge model read
Joe Thurrott54%
Ricky Miller 46%Elo baseline: 59%
The Combat Edge model makes Joe Thurrott a 54% favorite over Ricky Miller in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (59%).
Joe Thurrott holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1621 to 1561, a 60-point edge.
Joe Thurrott enters on a 5-fight win streak.
Joe Thurrott finishes 100% of wins inside the distance, Ricky Miller 83%.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.
Tale of the tape
7-2-0Record6-3-0
MiddleweightDivisionWelterweight
6'3"Height5'9"
-Reach-
185 lbsWeight160 lbs
Dark Horse GymTeam
What's at stake
Joe Thurrott is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +20 while a loss costs more — Ricky Miller carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+20→ 1641
If they lose-28→ 1593
If they win+28→ 1589
If they lose-20→ 1541
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1500 · 9 fightsPre-fight Elo1526 · 9 fights
Tracked stat edges
Tracked UFC statistics may not cover a fighter's full career. Unavailable measurements are not zero.
Elo Trajectory
Joe ThurrottRicky Miller