Joe Thurrott vs Trent Miller
Records, Elo, stats and the Combat Edge model read, side by side.
Combat Edge model read
Trent Miller56%
Joe Thurrott 44%Elo baseline: 50%
The Combat Edge model makes Trent Miller a 56% favorite over Joe Thurrott in a hypothetical meeting — an upset call against the Elo baseline, which leans Joe Thurrott's way (50%).
Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1621 vs 1618), separated by just 3 points.
Joe Thurrott enters on a 5-fight win streak.
Trent Miller enters on a 2-fight win streak.
Joe Thurrott finishes 100% of wins inside the distance, Trent Miller 90%.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.
Tale of the tape
7-2-0Record10-3-0
MiddleweightDivisionMiddleweight
6'3"Height5'9"
-Reach72"
185 lbsWeight184 lbs
Dark Horse GymTeamXtreme Couture
What's at stake
The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.
If they win+24→ 1645
If they lose-24→ 1597
If they win+16→ 1634
If they lose-16→ 1602
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1500 · 9 fightsPre-fight Elo1511 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Tracked UFC statistics may not cover a fighter's full career. Unavailable measurements are not zero.
Elo Trajectory
Joe ThurrottTrent Miller