Combat Edge Intelligence

Joel Sutton vs Matthew O'Rourke

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

Compare any two fighters →

Tale of the tape

2-4-1Record0-1-0
Light HeavyweightDivisionLight Heavyweight
5'10"Height-
TBDReach-
202 lbsWeight205 lbs
TBDTeamTeam Ryano Waterford

What's at stake

The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.

Joel SuttonNow 1470
If they win+24→ 1494
If they lose-24→ 1446
Matthew O'RourkeNow 1471
If they win+24→ 1495
If they lose-24→ 1447

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1510 · 8 fightsPre-fight Elo1503 · 1 fights

Tracked stat edges

TBD
Sig. strikes / min
TBD
TBD
Strike accuracy
TBD
TBD
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
TBD
TBD
Strike defense
TBD
TBD
Takedown avg.
TBD
TBD
Takedown accuracy
TBD
TBD
Takedown defense
TBD
TBD
Submission avg.
TBD

Trajectory

Joel SuttonMatthew O'Rourke
14501500155019981999200020012002200320042005200620072008200920102011201220132014201520162017201820192020202120222023202420252026

Win method breakdown

2 (100%)
KO/TKO
0 (0%)
0 (0%)
Submission
0 (0%)
0 (0%)
Decision
0 (0%)

Combat Edge model read

Matthew O'Rourke66%
Joel Sutton 34%Elo baseline: 50%

The Combat Edge model makes Matthew O'Rourke a 66% favorite over Joel Sutton in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (50%).

Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1470 vs 1471), separated by just 1 points.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.