Joelson Nascimento vs Kyohei Hagiwara
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
14-10-0Record9-12-0
FeatherweightDivisionFeatherweight
5'10"Height5'10"
TBDReach71.1"
145 lbsWeight145 lbs
Maquininha do Futuro· 1606 avg Elo · 3 ratedTeamTeam Smoker
What's at stake
The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.
If they win+16→ 1501
If they lose-16→ 1469
If they win+16→ 1505
If they lose-16→ 1473
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1527 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1567 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Tracked UFC statistics may not cover a fighter's full career. Unavailable measurements are not zero.
Elo Trajectory
Joelson NascimentoKyohei Hagiwara
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Joelson Nascimento57%
Kyohei Hagiwara 43%Elo baseline: 49%
The Combat Edge model makes Joelson Nascimento a 57% favorite over Kyohei Hagiwara in a hypothetical meeting — an upset call against the Elo baseline, which leans Kyohei Hagiwara's way (49%).
Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1485 vs 1489), separated by just 4 points.
Kyohei Hagiwara enters on a 3-fight loss streak.
Joelson Nascimento finishes 79% of wins inside the distance, Kyohei Hagiwara 78%.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.