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Combat Edge Intelligence

Joelson Nascimento vs Marcello Aguiar

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

Compare any two fighters →

Tale of the tape

14-10-0Record10-16-1
FeatherweightDivisionFeatherweight
5'10"Height5'9"
TBDReachTBD
145 lbsWeight145 lbs
Maquininha do Futuro· 1606 avg Elo · 3 ratedTeamBarbaros Jiu-Jitsu

What's at stake

The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.

Joelson NascimentoNow 1485
If they win+16→ 1501
If they lose-16→ 1469
Marcello AguiarNow 1484
If they win+24→ 1508
If they lose-24→ 1460

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1527 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1681 · 1 fights

Tracked stat edges

Tracked UFC statistics may not cover a fighter's full career. Unavailable measurements are not zero.

Not available
Sig. strikes / min
Not available
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Strike accuracy
Not available
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Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
Not available
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Strike defense
Not available
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Takedown avg.
Not available
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Takedown accuracy
Not available
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Takedown defense
Not available
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Submission avg.
Not available

Trajectory

Joelson NascimentoMarcello Aguiar
1450150020012002200320042005200620072008200920102011201220132014201520162017201820192020202120222023202420252026

Win method breakdown

7 (50%)
KO/TKO
3 (30%)
4 (29%)
Submission
6 (60%)
3 (21%)
Decision
1 (10%)

Combat Edge model read

The Combat Edge model rates this a near coin-flip, splitting Joelson Nascimento and Marcello Aguiar within a point of even.

Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1485 vs 1484), separated by just 1 points.

Joelson Nascimento finishes 79% of wins inside the distance, Marcello Aguiar 90%.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.