Combat Edge Intelligence

Johil de Oliveira vs Taisei Mizusugi

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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Tale of the tape

17-16-1Record6-8-0
LightweightDivisionLightweight
5'8"Height5'9"
TBDReach-
155 lbsWeight156 lbs
Johil TeamTeamblooM

What's at stake

Taisei Mizusugi is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +15 while a loss costs more — Johil de Oliveira carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.

Johil de OliveiraNow 1444
If they win+13→ 1457
If they lose-11→ 1433
Taisei MizusugiNow 1470
If they win+15→ 1485
If they lose-17→ 1453

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1506 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1504 · 10 fights

Tracked stat edges

TBD
Sig. strikes / min
TBD
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Strike accuracy
TBD
TBD
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
TBD
TBD
Strike defense
TBD
TBD
Takedown avg.
TBD
TBD
Takedown accuracy
TBD
TBD
Takedown defense
TBD
TBD
Submission avg.
TBD

Trajectory

Johil de OliveiraTaisei Mizusugi
14001450150020192020202120222023202420252026

Win method breakdown

5 (29%)
KO/TKO
2 (33%)
6 (35%)
Submission
1 (17%)
6 (35%)
Decision
3 (50%)

Combat Edge model read

Taisei Mizusugi78%
Johil de Oliveira 22%Elo baseline: 54%

The Combat Edge model makes Taisei Mizusugi a 78% favorite over Johil de Oliveira in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (54%).

Taisei Mizusugi holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1470 to 1444, a 26-point edge.

Johil de Oliveira enters on a 2-fight loss streak.

Johil de Oliveira finishes 65% of wins inside the distance, Taisei Mizusugi 50%.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.