Combat Edge Intelligence

John Alessio vs Mark Bocek

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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John Alessio
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John Alessio

“The Natural”

35-17-0LightweightBFC

1665Good

Tale of the tape

35-17-0Record12-5-0
LightweightDivisionLightweight
5'10"Height5'9"
TBDReachTBD
155 lbsWeight155 lbs
Xtreme CoutureTeamTristar Gym

What's at stake

Mark Bocek is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +15 while a loss costs more — John Alessio carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.

John AlessioNow 1665
If they win+13→ 1678
If they lose-11→ 1654
Mark BocekNow 1697
If they win+15→ 1712
If they lose-17→ 1680

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1595 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1644 · 10 fights

Tracked stat edges

2.10
Sig. strikes / min
2.34
39%
Strike accuracy
44%
2.91
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
2.32
55%
Strike defense
61%
1.85
Takedown avg.
3.65
38%
Takedown accuracy
37%
71%
Takedown defense
31%
1.16
Submission avg.
1.32

Trajectory

John AlessioMark Bocek
16501700201220132014

Win method breakdown

10 (30%)
KO/TKO
1 (8%)
15 (45%)
Submission
7 (58%)
8 (24%)
Decision
4 (33%)

Combat Edge model read

Mark Bocek75%
John Alessio 25%Elo baseline: 55%

The Combat Edge model makes Mark Bocek a 75% favorite over John Alessio in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (55%).

Mark Bocek holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1697 to 1665, a 32-point edge.

John Alessio finishes 76% of wins inside the distance, Mark Bocek 67%.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.