John Alessio vs Shane Roller
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
35-17-0Record11-7-0
LightweightDivisionLightweight
5'10"Height5'10"
TBDReachTBD
155 lbsWeight155 lbs
Xtreme CoutureTeamTeam Takedown
What's at stake
John Alessio is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +11 while a loss costs more — Shane Roller carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+11→ 1677
If they lose-13→ 1653
If they win+17→ 1653
If they lose-15→ 1621
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1599 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1633 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
John AlessioShane Roller
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Shane Roller53%
John Alessio 47%Elo baseline: 46%
The Combat Edge model makes Shane Roller a 53% favorite over John Alessio in a hypothetical meeting — an upset call against the Elo baseline, which leans John Alessio's way (46%).
John Alessio holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1666 to 1636, a 30-point edge.
Shane Roller enters on a 2-fight win streak.
John Alessio finishes 76% of wins inside the distance, Shane Roller 82%.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.