John Alessio vs Thiago Alves
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
35-17-0Record23-15-0
LightweightDivisionWelterweight
5'10"Height5'10"
TBDReach70,0"
155 lbsWeight170 lbs
Xtreme CoutureTeamAmerican Top Team
What's at stake
John Alessio is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +9 while a loss costs more — Thiago Alves carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+9→ 1675
If they lose-15→ 1651
If they win+15→ 1588
If they lose-9→ 1564
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1599 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1654 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Tracked UFC statistics may not cover a fighter's full career. Unavailable measurements are not zero.
Elo Trajectory
John AlessioThiago Alves
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Thiago Alves55%
John Alessio 45%Elo baseline: 37%
The Combat Edge model makes Thiago Alves a 55% favorite over John Alessio in a hypothetical meeting — an upset call against the Elo baseline, which leans John Alessio's way (37%).
John Alessio holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1666 to 1573, a 93-point edge.
Thiago Alves enters on a 2-fight loss streak.
John Alessio finishes 76% of wins inside the distance, Thiago Alves 61%.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.