Combat Edge Intelligence

John Castañeda vs Nkosi Ndebele

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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Tale of the tape

21-8-1Record14-3-0
BantamweightDivisionBantamweight
5'7"Height5'10"
71"Reach75"
135 lbsWeight135 lbs
The AcademyTeamNova MMA Academy

What's at stake

The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.

John CastañedaNow 1697
If they win+12→ 1709
If they lose-12→ 1685
Nkosi NdebeleNow 1707
If they win+16→ 1723
If they lose-16→ 1691

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1668 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1594 · 10 fights

Tracked stat edges

4.42
Sig. strikes / min
TBD
51%
Strike accuracy
TBD
4.94
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
TBD
54%
Strike defense
TBD
1.68
Takedown avg.
TBD
37%
Takedown accuracy
TBD
74%
Takedown defense
TBD
0.13
Submission avg.
TBD

Trajectory

John CastañedaNkosi Ndebele
16501700202420252026

Win method breakdown

8 (38%)
KO/TKO
7 (50%)
6 (29%)
Submission
0 (0%)
7 (33%)
Decision
7 (50%)

Combat Edge model read

Nkosi Ndebele71%
John Castañeda 29%Elo baseline: 51%

The Combat Edge model makes Nkosi Ndebele a 71% favorite over John Castañeda in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (51%).

Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1697 vs 1707), separated by just 10 points.

Nkosi Ndebele enters on a 6-fight win streak.

John Castañeda finishes 67% of wins inside the distance, Nkosi Ndebele 50%.

Nkosi Ndebele carries a 4-inch reach advantage.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.