John Castañeda vs Tommy Morrisson
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
21-8-1Record12-0-0
BantamweightDivisionBantamweight
5'7"Height5'7"
71"Reach67.1"
135 lbsWeight135 lbs
The AcademyTeamTristar Gym
What's at stake
The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.
If they win+12→ 1709
If they lose-12→ 1685
If they win+16→ 1712
If they lose-16→ 1680
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1668 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1492 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
John CastañedaTommy Morrisson
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Tommy Morrisson56%
John Castañeda 44%Elo baseline: 50%
The Combat Edge model makes Tommy Morrisson a 56% favorite over John Castañeda in a hypothetical meeting — an upset call against the Elo baseline, which leans John Castañeda's way (50%).
Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1697 vs 1696), separated by just 1 points.
Tommy Morrisson enters on a 10-fight win streak.
John Castañeda finishes 67% of wins inside the distance, Tommy Morrisson 25%.
John Castañeda carries a 4-inch reach advantage.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.