John Castañeda vs Muin Gafurov
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
21-8-1Record20-7-0
BantamweightDivisionBantamweight
5'7"Height5'7"
71"Reach68"
135 lbsWeight136 lbs
What's at stake
John Castañeda is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +11 while a loss costs more — Muin Gafurov carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+11→ 1708
If they lose-13→ 1684
If they win+17→ 1685
If they lose-15→ 1653
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1668 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1653 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
John CastañedaMuin Gafurov
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
John Castañeda51%
Muin Gafurov 49%Elo baseline: 54%
The Combat Edge model makes John Castañeda a 51% favorite over Muin Gafurov in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (54%).
John Castañeda holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1697 to 1668, a 29-point edge.
John Castañeda finishes 67% of wins inside the distance, Muin Gafurov 85%.
John Castañeda and Muin Gafurov share 1 common opponent: Kyung Ho Kang.
John Castañeda carries a 3-inch reach advantage.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.