John Castañeda vs Tony Gravely
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
21-9-1Record23-9-0
BantamweightDivisionBantamweight
5'7"Height5'5"
71"Reach69"
135 lbsWeight135 lbs
The AcademyTeamAmerican Top Team
What's at stake
The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.
If they win+12→ 1696
If they lose-12→ 1672
If they win+12→ 1696
If they lose-12→ 1672
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1669 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1649 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Tracked UFC statistics may not cover a fighter's full career. Unavailable measurements are not zero.
Elo Trajectory
John CastañedaTony Gravely
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
John Castañeda73%
Tony Gravely 27%Elo baseline: 50%
The Combat Edge model makes John Castañeda a 73% favorite over Tony Gravely in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (50%).
Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1684 vs 1684), separated by just 0 points.
Tony Gravely enters on a 2-fight loss streak.
John Castañeda finishes 67% of wins inside the distance, Tony Gravely 57%.
John Castañeda carries a 2-inch reach advantage.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.