John Cholish vs Mitch Clarke
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
8-3-0Record11-5-0
LightweightDivisionLightweight
5'11"Height5'10"
TBDReach73,0"
155 lbsWeight154 lbs
What's at stake
John Cholish is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +14 while a loss costs more — Mitch Clarke carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+14→ 1650
If they lose-18→ 1618
If they win+18→ 1618
If they lose-14→ 1586
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1565 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1580 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Tracked UFC statistics may not cover a fighter's full career. Unavailable measurements are not zero.
Elo Trajectory
John CholishMitch Clarke
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Mitch Clarke60%
John Cholish 40%Elo baseline: 45%
The Combat Edge model makes Mitch Clarke a 60% favorite over John Cholish in a hypothetical meeting — an upset call against the Elo baseline, which leans John Cholish's way (45%).
John Cholish holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1636 to 1600, a 36-point edge.
John Cholish enters on a 2-fight loss streak.
Mitch Clarke enters on a 3-fight loss streak.
John Cholish finishes 88% of wins inside the distance, Mitch Clarke 73%.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.