Combat Edge Intelligence

John Cholish vs Mitch Clarke

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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Mitch Clarke
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Mitch Clarke

“Danger Zone”

11-5-0LightweightUFC

1599Solid

Tale of the tape

8-3-0Record11-5-0
LightweightDivisionLightweight
5'11"Height5'10"
TBDReach73,0"
155 lbsWeight154 lbs
Renzo Gracie Jiu-JitsuTeamTBD

What's at stake

John Cholish is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +14 while a loss costs more — Mitch Clarke carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.

John CholishNow 1639
If they win+14→ 1653
If they lose-18→ 1621
Mitch ClarkeNow 1599
If they win+18→ 1617
If they lose-14→ 1585

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1570 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1578 · 10 fights

Tracked stat edges

2.65
Sig. strikes / min
2.35
50%
Strike accuracy
34%
2.29
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
3.27
73%
Strike defense
48%
1.82
Takedown avg.
0.64
31%
Takedown accuracy
15%
79%
Takedown defense
50%
0.36
Submission avg.
0.43

Trajectory

John CholishMitch Clarke
1600165017002011201220132014201520162017

Win method breakdown

3 (38%)
KO/TKO
1 (9%)
4 (50%)
Submission
7 (64%)
1 (13%)
Decision
3 (27%)

Combat Edge model read

John Cholish60%
Mitch Clarke 40%Elo baseline: 56%

The Combat Edge model makes John Cholish a 60% favorite over Mitch Clarke in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (56%).

John Cholish holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1639 to 1599, a 40-point edge.

John Cholish enters on a 2-fight loss streak.

Mitch Clarke enters on a 3-fight loss streak.

John Cholish finishes 88% of wins inside the distance, Mitch Clarke 73%.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.