Combat Edge Intelligence

John Dodson vs Jussier Formiga

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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John Dodson
us

John Dodson

“The Magician”

24-14-0FlyweightRFF

1692Good

Tale of the tape

24-14-0Record24-8-0
FlyweightDivisionFlyweight
5'3"Height5'5"
66,0"ReachTBD
126 lbsWeight125 lbs
Jackson-Wink MMATeamAmerican Top Team

What's at stake

Jussier Formiga is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +11 while a loss costs more — John Dodson carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.

John DodsonNow 1692
If they win+13→ 1705
If they lose-11→ 1681
Jussier FormigaNow 1726
If they win+11→ 1737
If they lose-13→ 1713

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1622 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1681 · 10 fights

Tracked stat edges

3.20
Sig. strikes / min
1.42
41%
Strike accuracy
40%
3.58
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
2.34
62%
Strike defense
64%
0.71
Takedown avg.
1.82
29%
Takedown accuracy
35%
82%
Takedown defense
87%
0
Submission avg.
0.58

Trajectory

John DodsonJussier Formiga
170017502020202120222023

Win method breakdown

11 (46%)
KO/TKO
0 (0%)
2 (8%)
Submission
11 (46%)
11 (46%)
Decision
13 (54%)

Combat Edge model read

Jussier Formiga64%
John Dodson 36%Elo baseline: 55%

The Combat Edge model makes Jussier Formiga a 64% favorite over John Dodson in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (55%).

Jussier Formiga holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1726 to 1692, a 34-point edge.

John Dodson finishes 54% of wins inside the distance, Jussier Formiga 46%.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.