Combat Edge Intelligence

John Donaldson vs Kyohei Hagiwara

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

Compare any two fighters →

Tale of the tape

0-1-0Record9-12-0
FeatherweightDivisionFeatherweight
5'8"Height5'10"
66,0"Reach71.1"
145 lbsWeight145 lbs
TeamTeam Smoker

What's at stake

The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.

John DonaldsonNow 1483
If they win+16→ 1499
If they lose-16→ 1467
Kyohei HagiwaraNow 1479
If they win+16→ 1495
If they lose-16→ 1463

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1494 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1548 · 10 fights

Tracked stat edges

3.20
Sig. strikes / min
TBD
41%
Strike accuracy
TBD
3.58
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
TBD
62%
Strike defense
TBD
0.71
Takedown avg.
TBD
29%
Takedown accuracy
TBD
82%
Takedown defense
TBD
0
Submission avg.
TBD

Trajectory

John DonaldsonKyohei Hagiwara
1450150020222023202420252026

Win method breakdown

0 (0%)
KO/TKO
7 (78%)
0 (0%)
Submission
0 (0%)
0 (0%)
Decision
2 (22%)

Combat Edge model read

Kyohei Hagiwara62%
John Donaldson 38%Elo baseline: 49%

The Combat Edge model makes Kyohei Hagiwara a 62% favorite over John Donaldson in a hypothetical meeting — an upset call against the Elo baseline, which leans John Donaldson's way (49%).

Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1483 vs 1479), separated by just 4 points.

Kyohei Hagiwara enters on a 3-fight loss streak.

Kyohei Hagiwara 78%.

Kyohei Hagiwara carries a 5-inch reach advantage.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.