Combat Edge Intelligence

John Franchi vs Lucas Alexander

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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Tale of the tape

6-2-0Record8-5-0
FeatherweightDivisionFeatherweight
5'6"Height5'11"
TBDReach73"
145 lbsWeight148 lbs
Team BombsquadTeamFusion X-Cel Performance· 1620 avg Elo · 3 rated

What's at stake

The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.

John FranchiNow 1577
If they win+24→ 1601
If they lose-24→ 1553
Lucas AlexanderNow 1576
If they win+16→ 1592
If they lose-16→ 1560

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1548 · 7 fightsPre-fight Elo1573 · 10 fights

Tracked stat edges

1.83
Sig. strikes / min
5.23
49%
Strike accuracy
55%
2.59
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
1.83
49%
Strike defense
71%
2.68
Takedown avg.
0
80%
Takedown accuracy
0%
40%
Takedown defense
57%
0.33
Submission avg.
0

Trajectory

John FranchiLucas Alexander
15501600200820092010201120122013201420152016201720182019202020212022202320242025

Win method breakdown

2 (33%)
KO/TKO
3 (38%)
2 (33%)
Submission
0 (0%)
2 (33%)
Decision
5 (63%)

Combat Edge model read

Lucas Alexander52%
John Franchi 48%Elo baseline: 50%

The Combat Edge model makes Lucas Alexander a 52% favorite over John Franchi in a hypothetical meeting — an upset call against the Elo baseline, which leans John Franchi's way (50%).

Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1577 vs 1576), separated by just 1 points.

Lucas Alexander enters on a 2-fight loss streak.

John Franchi finishes 67% of wins inside the distance, Lucas Alexander 38%.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.