Combat Edge Intelligence

John Gunderson vs Rafaello Oliveira

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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Tale of the tape

35-16-2Record17-8-0
FeatherweightDivisionLightweight
5'9"Height5'8"
TBDReachTBD
145 lbsWeight155 lbs
Syndicate MMATeamAMA Fight Club

What's at stake

John Gunderson is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +11 while a loss costs more — Rafaello Oliveira carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.

John GundersonNow 1619
If they win+11→ 1630
If they lose-13→ 1606
Rafaello OliveiraNow 1601
If they win+17→ 1618
If they lose-15→ 1586

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1532 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1583 · 10 fights

Tracked stat edges

1.04
Sig. strikes / min
2.19
27%
Strike accuracy
33%
1.71
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
3.38
59%
Strike defense
59%
1.67
Takedown avg.
2.49
33%
Takedown accuracy
37%
11%
Takedown defense
11%
2
Submission avg.
1.60

Trajectory

John GundersonRafaello Oliveira
16001650201220132014

Win method breakdown

4 (11%)
KO/TKO
4 (27%)
28 (80%)
Submission
5 (33%)
3 (9%)
Decision
6 (40%)

Combat Edge model read

Rafaello Oliveira56%
John Gunderson 44%Elo baseline: 47%

The Combat Edge model makes Rafaello Oliveira a 56% favorite over John Gunderson in a hypothetical meeting — an upset call against the Elo baseline, which leans John Gunderson's way (47%).

John Gunderson holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1619 to 1601, a 18-point edge.

Rafaello Oliveira enters on a 2-fight loss streak.

John Gunderson finishes 91% of wins inside the distance, Rafaello Oliveira 60%.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.