Combat Edge Intelligence

John Gunderson vs Rustam Asuev

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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Tale of the tape

35-16-2Record10-2-0
FeatherweightDivisionLightweight
5'9"Height5'7"
TBDReach-
145 lbsWeight149 lbs
Syndicate MMATeamFight Club Berkut

What's at stake

The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.

John GundersonNow 1619
If they win+12→ 1631
If they lose-12→ 1607
Rustam AsuevNow 1622
If they win+16→ 1638
If they lose-16→ 1606

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1532 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1511 · 10 fights

Tracked stat edges

1.04
Sig. strikes / min
TBD
27%
Strike accuracy
TBD
1.71
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
TBD
59%
Strike defense
TBD
1.67
Takedown avg.
TBD
33%
Takedown accuracy
TBD
11%
Takedown defense
TBD
2
Submission avg.
TBD

Trajectory

John GundersonRustam Asuev
1600165020122013201420152016201720182019202020212022202320242025

Win method breakdown

4 (11%)
KO/TKO
2 (20%)
28 (80%)
Submission
1 (10%)
3 (9%)
Decision
7 (70%)

Combat Edge model read

Rustam Asuev70%
John Gunderson 30%Elo baseline: 50%

The Combat Edge model makes Rustam Asuev a 70% favorite over John Gunderson in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (50%).

Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1619 vs 1622), separated by just 3 points.

Rustam Asuev enters on a 2-fight win streak.

John Gunderson finishes 91% of wins inside the distance, Rustam Asuev 30%.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.