Combat Edge Intelligence

John Halverson vs Jorge Gurgel

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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Tale of the tape

16-8-0Record14-10-0
LightweightDivisionLightweight
5'9"Height5'9"
TBDReachTBD
155 lbsWeight154 lbs
TBDTeamTeam Jorge Gurgel

What's at stake

John Halverson is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +14 while a loss costs more — Jorge Gurgel carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.

John HalversonNow 1613
If they win+14→ 1627
If they lose-18→ 1595
Jorge GurgelNow 1564
If they win+18→ 1582
If they lose-14→ 1550

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1521 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1620 · 10 fights

Tracked stat edges

2.94
Sig. strikes / min
3.40
43%
Strike accuracy
33%
5.29
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
3.83
48%
Strike defense
62%
0
Takedown avg.
0.86
TBD
Takedown accuracy
25%
67%
Takedown defense
60%
1.96
Submission avg.
0.14

Trajectory

John HalversonJorge Gurgel
15501600201220132014

Win method breakdown

10 (63%)
KO/TKO
0 (0%)
5 (31%)
Submission
10 (71%)
1 (6%)
Decision
4 (29%)

Combat Edge model read

John Halverson60%
Jorge Gurgel 40%Elo baseline: 57%

The Combat Edge model makes John Halverson a 60% favorite over Jorge Gurgel in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (57%).

John Halverson holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1613 to 1564, a 49-point edge.

John Halverson enters on a 2-fight loss streak.

Jorge Gurgel enters on a 3-fight loss streak.

John Halverson finishes 94% of wins inside the distance, Jorge Gurgel 71%.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.